"This month, we use backward thinking as a mental model to answer a simple yet crucial question: How convinced are we that Canada or the United States will see a recession in the coming 2 years?”
— Sébastien Mc Mahon, Adil Mahroug & Tuyen Tran, iAGAM
Highlights:
- We are taking the opportunity this month to introduce our readers to one of the mental models that underpin our process: thinking backward
- We apply it to our macro financial outlook and use it to evaluate the likelihood of a no-recession scenario in Canada and the U.S. by analyzing the entire chain of events that need to happen for such a scenario to materialize
- Our analysis leads us to believe that such an outcome is unlikely and we therefore kept our positioning unchanged
Your Monthly Macro & Strategy is now on the new iA Global Asset Management website! If you haven't already done so, check it out now!
Your current economic review is also in the Document Centre of the Advisor Centre every month! Search with the keyword "Macro" or bookmark the following link: Monthly Macro and Strategy
Sébastien Mc Mahon, MA, PRM, CFA
Chief Strategist, Senior Economist and Vice-President, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Manager
Adil Mahroug, M.Sc.
Senior Strategist and Director, Asset Allocation
Tuyen Tran, M.Sc., CFA
Senior Analyst, Asset Allocation and Economics
