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Monthly Macro & Strategy | Beautiful Dangerous

August 7, 2025

Monthly Macro & Strategy | Beautiful Dangerous
1:08

The latest fiscal package, dubbed the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB), is a sprawling mix of tax cuts, spending shifts, and political signalling.

Highlights:

  • The U.S. fiscal trajectory is increasingly unsustainable, with structurally high deficits and rising interest burdens threatening long-term stability. 
  • The U.S. Treasury curve reflects growing investor anxiety, as rising term premia and diminished safehaven demand push long-term yields higher.
  • We have closed all discretionary FX positions and maintain a risk-on stance with an overweight on equities, while adding a position on gold and staying underweight long-duration fixed income.

 

 Your experts

 

Sébastien Mc Mahon, MA, PRM, CFA
Chief Strategist, Senior Economist and Vice-President, Asset Allocation & Portfolio Manager

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Alex Bellefleur, MA, CFA
Senior Vice-President, Head of Research, Asset Allocation

 

 

Tuyen Tran, M.Sc., CFA
Senior Analyst, Asset Allocation and Economics

 

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